Argentina are out to make history this summer and become the first nation to retain the World Cup on a different continent. No team has done it anywhere since Brazil in 1962. Achieving it would cap Lionel Messi’s career. But how realistic is winning it again?
"I hope that Argentina can still do it," former captain Javier Zanetti tells Sky Sports . "Argentina arrive in this World Cup prepared with a good mentality and a good team," he adds. Then comes the inevitable note of caution. "But it is very difficult to repeat it."
While France came agonisingly close to retaining football's most famous trophy in Qatar, even getting that far bucked the trend. The three previous countries to go into the World Cup seeking to defend their trophy were each eliminated during the group stage.
Germany finished bottom of a group that featured Sweden, Mexico and South Korea in 2018. Spain suffered the ignominy of a 5-1 defeat to the Netherlands in their opener in 2014. Italy propped up a group including Paraguay, Slovakia and New Zealand in 2010.
All of which makes Brazil reaching the quarter-finals in 2006 look a relative triumph. The only other attempt to defend the crown this century began and ended in humiliation as France failed to win a game in 2002, losing their opener to Senegal and finishing bottom.
What makes it so difficult? The problem often stems from a desire to retain the core of a winning squad. Coming up short on the biggest stage can lead to recriminations, a natural inclination to rebuild. Success encourages players and coaches to stick around.
Marcello Lippi actually quit the Italy job after winning the World Cup in 2006 but was tempted back two years later. Fabio Cannavaro, his captain, had missed Euro 2008 through injury but could not resist one last crack at it - with underwhelming results.
He was 36 and his career in European club football was already over. Upon Italy's exit, Maurizio Crosetti of La Repubblica wrote: "Cannavaro is a former player and almost all the others are cooked. We were world champions and we made the world laugh."
Vicente Del Bosque's struggles with Spain four years later were even more surprising given that they had won each of their three previous major tournaments. But his team looked one paced in Brazil. Xabi Alonso and Xavi Hernandez retired in the aftermath.
There were similar problems for Germany in Russia four years later as Jogi Low retained faith in an ageing group. Sami Khedira, once the engine of the midfield, was 31 and unable to take on the same role. Twice he found himself hooked before the hour mark.
Mesut Ozil, once perpetual motion, was another whose game had changed. He never played for Germany again. Low had neglected to appreciate that, with time, the character of a squad can change even if - or perhaps because - the names are the same.
Could the same be true of an Argentina squad in which 10 of the starting 11 from the 2022 World Cup final are returning? They will believe they can be more like the France of that year than any of those predecessors but there are some uncomfortable parallels.
Any Liverpool supporter will know that expecting Alexis Mac Allister to reproduce the sort of lung-busting run that did for the France defence for Angel Di Maria's opening goal in the World Cup final in Qatar is optimistic. He looks a different type of midfielder now.
And Mac Allister is among the younger ones. Nicolas Otamendi is now 38 years old and is joining River Plate from Benfica after the World Cup. Lyon left-back Nicolas Tagliafico is 33. And then there is Messi himself, now in his fourth season of Major League Soccer.
On the face of it, Messi is still delivering. He comes into the tournament in form and Argentina's results have held up. They won the Copa America in 2024 and topped the table by some margin in South American qualifying with Messi as the overall top scorer.
Zanetti views his presence as only positive. "I think having Messi is a bonus these days," he explains. "He is the best in history. For me, he is the best in the past, the best now. It will be his last World Cup but he is still the captain." For him, it is a reason to believe.
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"The truth is that having him on the pitch always gives you a certain sense of calm because you know that you have a player who can make the difference at any one moment," adds Zanetti. "And I think it helps that he is also surrounded by great players."
There is some young blood in this Argentina squad, players who it is hoped can bring fresh impetus. Most notably, there is huge excitement about the potential of Nico Paz, who has been such a revelation in helping carry Como into the Champions League.
Valentin Barco, once of Brighton and still only 21 years old, has emerged as well. Giuliano Simeone of Atletico Madrid will be a useful option for Lionel Scaloni. "There is experience," points out Zanetti. "But there are a lot of young players too. There is a mix."
Even so, with Messi so central to their plans, this still feels like a bet on the old maestro. Can he roll back the years and take Argentina all the way to the final once more? It would mean winning five knockout games in just 15 days at the age of 39.
The understanding between Messi and Scaloni will be key. "With the dialogue and trust they have, and the relationship they have built over the years, everything is very clear. He will try to ensure that Messi can continue to be a key player at the World Cup."
Nevertheless, even the great man is pushing his luck here. Messi had his perfect ending in Qatar but is back for more, lured by the prospect of yet more glory. It would be truly sensational. And yet, the ghosts of World Cups past suggest that it is also unlikely.
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Sources: Sky Sports
