Head-to-Head: Spain vs Argentina
Spain and Argentina have crossed paths more than a dozen times since the 1920s, almost all of it in friendlies rather than competitive fixtures — remarkably, the two nations have never previously met at a World Cup, despite a combined six titles between them, three apiece. The most recent meeting is also the most one-sided: a startling 6–1 Spain win in a March 2018 friendly at the Wanda Metropolitano, Isco scoring a first-half hat-trick as Lionel Messi and company were brushed aside months before that year’s World Cup in Russia. Argentina will point to history for reassurance — the fixture has swung back and forth across the decades, and this Argentina side, unlike that 2018 vintage, arrives as world and Copa América champions rather than a team searching for form. Sunday will be the first time the sides have ever settled anything with a trophy on the line.
Predicted Line-Ups
Neither manager has a reason to change a winning team. Luis de la Fuente set Spain up in a 4-1-2-3 for the France win, with Rodri screening alone in front of the back four and Pedri and Dani Olmo shuttling the ball into the front three: Unai Simón; Pedro Porro, Pau Cubarsí, Aymeric Laporte, Marc Cucurella; Rodri; Pedri, Dani Olmo; Álex Baena, Mikel Oyarzabal, Lamine Yamal. Lionel Scaloni used a 4-1-3-2 against England — Leandro Paredes as the deep pivot, Enzo Fernández and Alexis Mac Allister either side of Rodrigo De Paul, and Messi paired with Julián Álvarez up top rather than out wide: Emiliano Martínez; Nahuel Molina, Cristian Romero, Lisandro Martínez, Nicolás Tagliafico; Leandro Paredes; Rodrigo De Paul, Enzo Fernández, Alexis Mac Allister; Lionel Messi, Julián Álvarez. Expect both sides to name unchanged XIs for the biggest match of their lives.
Spain’s Road to the Final
Spain’s tournament could hardly have started less convincingly — a goalless stalemate against Cape Verde in Atlanta, in which 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha somehow kept out 27 shots. La Roja recovered to top Group H, then went through the knockout rounds unbeaten and, remarkably, untrailed: Austria were swept aside 3–0 in the Round of 32 (Mikel Oyarzabal with a brace, Pedro Porro adding a third), Portugal were edged 1–0 in the Round of 16 when Mikel Merino struck in the first minute of stoppage time, and Belgium were beaten 2–1 in the Quarter-Final — Fabián Ruiz’s opener cancelled out by Charles De Ketelaere before Merino, again, won it with two minutes of normal time left. The Semi-Final against France, unbeaten and previously unscored-against in the knockout stage, was supposed to be the examination that finally caught Spain out. Instead Luis de la Fuente’s side produced their most complete performance of the summer at AT&T Stadium: Oyarzabal converted a 22nd-minute penalty, Porro doubled the lead just after the hour, and France never found a way back in. 2–0, and Spain are into their first World Cup Final since 2010 without having trailed for a single minute of the knockout stage.
Argentina’s Road to the Final
Argentina’s route has been the opposite of serene. Lionel Messi opened the tournament with a hat-trick against Algeria — his 200th cap, and a treble that pulled him level with Miroslav Klose’s all-time World Cup scoring record of 16 goals — but every knockout tie since has gone to the wire. Cape Verde pushed the defending champions to extra time in the Round of 32 before Argentina scraped through 3–2. Egypt led 2–0 in the Round of 16 before Cristian Romero, Messi and Enzo Fernández scored three times in eleven second-half minutes to turn it around, 3–2. Switzerland needed 120 minutes and a red card for Breel Embolo before Julián Álvarez and Lisandro Martínez finally broke the deadlock in extra time, 3–1. And in the Semi-Final against England at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Argentina trailed to an Anthony Gordon strike before Enzo Fernández equalised in the 85th minute and Lisandro Martínez won it in the second minute of stoppage time, 2–1. Five knockout matches, one clean sheet, and a habit of finding a way regardless — Lionel Scaloni’s side arrive in New Jersey battle-scarred but unbeaten, one win away from defending their title.
Prediction: Who Wins the Final?
Spain arrive as the form team of the tournament: unbeaten, untrailed in the knockout rounds, and playing with more control than anyone left in the draw. Argentina arrive as the team that refuses to lose: five knockout matches, five results that went their way, however long it took. Something has to give. Spain’s suffocating possession game should dominate long stretches of the match, and Pedri and Gavi have shown all tournament they can strangle the tempo out of better midfields than Argentina’s engine room. But Argentina have spent five straight knockout matches proving that scorelines and territory mean nothing once Lionel Messi and Julián Álvarez sense a chance to strike late — and a team built to grind out 120 minutes when it must is exactly the kind of opponent that punishes a slow start. Prediction: Argentina 2–1 Spain (a.e.t.) — a fitting final chapter to the Messi era, decided, as so much of this Argentina run has been, deep into extra time.
