T he World Cup has reached the quarter-final stage and the favourites to reach the last four in descending order of likelihood, according to Opta, are France, Spain, Argentina and England. All eight remaining teams have positive data in their favour from the tournament, though.
The ability of the France squad to glide past opponents is incredible. Opta measures ball carries of at least five metres, with additional information on whether the player in question ended his run with a shot or chance created. There are nine players who have at least four of both types of productive carry: Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué, Kylian Mbappé and Michael Olise are four of them, with Bradley Barcola one carry-powered chance-creating pass away from joining them.
Morocco have logged the most sprints of the eight teams remaining. They have played an additional half-hour compared with some sides, though there isn’t likely to be too much sprinting in extra time.
If you divide each team’s sprint total by the distance they have covered, Morocco have the highest average, suggesting they have run most intensely. Playing two of their matches in air-conditioned stadiums may have helped, but they should have the physicality to cope with France .
Spain’s average possession is within a couple of decimal places of what they averaged at Euro 2012. While this team is not as dour as their predecessors from 14 years ago, their ownership of the ball has enabled them to have a similarly impervious defence.
To put the expected goal total Spain have conceded into context, Norway have allowed at least 1.49 xG in four of their five matches.
Opta’s high-turnover metric records when a team begins an open-play possession sequence within 40 metres of the opposition goal. Spain lead this stat with 50, while Belgium (41) are in the chasing pack.
The edge Belgium enjoy is no team being close to them for the number of high turnovers that resulted in shots (15), with their four goals from them also the top mark. Spain’s backline may get pressed into uncharacteristic mistakes.
View image in fullscreen Erling Haaland is Norway’s biggest hope of reaching the semi-finals of the World Cup for the first time. Photograph: Image Photo Agency/Getty Images Norway Expected goals-per-shot average: 0.17
Quality, not quantity has very much been Norway’s motto. They have taken only four shots more than Cape Verde despite playing an extra match. The average quality of their chances, as measured by expected goals, has been higher than any other team.
While five games is a tiny sample, Norway’s non-penalty xG per shot (0.17) is higher than any team averaged in Europe’s big five leagues last season.
England produced a ruthless attacking performance against Mexico : six shots, five of which were on target, scoring three times. As they struck via two tap-ins and a penalty, their goals were deemed by Opta to be big chances, which are defined as when “a player should reasonably be expected to score”.
While far less clinical at converting them earlier in the tournament, England have had more of these golden opportunities than any other team.
Counterattack, set-piece and penalty goals: 7
Argentina are the joint-top scorers with 14 goals. What sets them apart, however, is their attacking variety with no other team having scored as many times outside the remit of what Opta deem regular play. The defending champions can overpower opponents in many different ways.
Argentina scored two counterattacking goals against Austria , a pair from free-kicks in their win over Jordan and two via corners to see off Cape Verde . They can even afford for Lionel Messi to miss penalties.
View image in fullscreen Enzo Fernàndez heads home Argentina’s winner to finish a lethal counterattack against Egypt. Photograph: VCG/Getty Images Switzerland Direct speed: 1.77 metres per second
Switzerland do not appear to be a particularly quick attacking team to the eye, and by the standards of the 48 sides, they are not. Opta’s direct-speed metric, which measures “average speed of ball movement towards opponent goal line during sequence” has them as the fastest of the quarter-finalists, though.
With Argentina likely to dominate possession, Switzerland will need to pounce when they get an opportunity.
Sources: The Guardian
