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Could one win get Scotland out of World Cup group?
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BBC Sport·about 9 hours ago

Could one win get Scotland out of World Cup group?

Image caption, Scotland face Morocco, Brazil and Haiti at the 2026 World Cup

Image source, Getty Images Image caption, Scotland face Morocco, Brazil and Haiti at the 2026 World Cup

After a 28-year absence from the World Cup finals, Scotland are back and will take on Brazil, Morocco and Haiti in the United States.

It is a daunting task for Steve Clarke and his team, but the Tartan Army will travel with an American dream of progression after some positive warm-up performances.

The Scots' chances are also boosted by the expanded format, in which even finishing third in Group C may be enough to advance.

The eight best third-placed sides from the group stage will join the group winners and runners-up in the first knockout round.

So could one win be enough for Scotland? Here's all you need to know.

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Published 5 days ago Could one win be enough for Scotland? There are only four third-placed sides who will miss out on a place in the last 32 of the World Cup from the 12 groups.

So all eyes will be on the game against Haiti, which Scotland must surely win to have a realistic chance of progressing from the group.

Four points will almost certainly be enough to get through, but will three points suffice? Maybe, but goal difference would then be key.

Looking back at recent World Cups and applying similar logic - but with three third-placed teams through in those cases - only in 2010 would four points have been required.

2022: Four third-placed teams finished on three points. A goal difference of zero was needed.

2018: Six third-placed teams had three points. A goal difference of -1 was needed.

2014: Five third-placed teams had three points. A goal difference of -1 was required.

2010: Four points would have been required.

2006: Only one third-placed team earned more than three points. A goal difference of -2 was enough with three points.

2002: Four teams gained three points or fewer. A goal difference of zero was needed.

1998: Six third-placed teams gained more than three points. A goal difference of -5 would have been enough to advance.

So, the best chance of a Scotland win looks most likely to come in the opening game against Haiti.

Ranked 83rd in the world, the Caribbean nation qualified for their first World Cup since 1974 by beating Nicaragua last month.

Manager Sabastien Migne has been unable to set foot in Haiti since his appointment two years ago, as ongoing conflict in the country forces them to play their home matches 500 miles away in Curacao - an island nation just off the coast of Venezuela.

Wolves midfielder Jean-Ricner Bellegarde is among their squad, which also features several players from Major League Soccer and European leagues.

Morocco are the second seeds in the group. Ranked eighth in the world, they reached the semi-finals at the last World Cup and boast talents such as Paris Saint-Germain's Achraf Hakimi and Real Madrid's Brahim Diaz.

They are also the reigning Africa Cup of Nations champions after being declared winners of the 2025 tournament, following the Confederation of African Football's decision to overturn the final result because of Senegal's controversial walk-off.

The Moroccans won all eight of their qualifying matches, scoring 22 goals and conceding just twice.

Brazil stars such as Vinicius Junior and Gabriel need little introduction, nor does their manager Carlo Ancelotti.

However, the five-time winners struggled in qualifying. They finished fifth in the 10-team South American section, losing six times - including a defeat by Bolivia, who were thumped 4-0 by Scotland in a friendly last weekend.

So, if the Scots can beat Haiti and then secure either a point or a narrow defeat against the top two seeds, they stand a good chance of progressing to the last 32.

Without getting too far ahead of ourselves, this is where things get a bit confusing.

What we do know is if Scotland progress, they will play their first-ever knockout tie at a major finals on either 29 May, 30 May or 1 June (all BST).

Let's get the most likely scenario out of the way first... If Scotland finish top of their group, they will face the runners-up from Group F (which includes the Netherlands, Japan, Sweden and Tunisia) in Houston on 29 May (18:00).

Finishing second would mean a last-32 tie against the winners from the same group in Monterrey on 30 May (02:00).

There are three different possibilities for a third-placed finish. These include returning to Boston to face the winners of Group E (top seeds are Germany) on 29 May (21:30), or taking on the winners of Group I (top seeds are France) in New York 24 hours later.

The final option is a trip to Mexico City to meet the winners of Group A. Co-hosts Mexico are in that section, which also includes South Africa, South Korea and the Czech Republic.

With so many permutations to be ironed out during the group stage, it could be a very short turnaround for Scotland between discovering their knockout opponents and their next destination if they finish third.

Former Scotland captain Scott Brown, speaking at time of draw: "We've got to look to beat Haiti, it will be a huge game for us. Morocco, we'll be underdogs from looking at the world rankings, it's a hard game.

"Brazil is the big one. Everyone will want to be at that Scotland v Brazil game. Seeing that yellow shirt, they've got top quality players. As do Morocco.

"We've got to beat Haiti and try to pick up points somewhere else. There is hope for us."

Former Scotland forward James McFadden, speaking at time of draw: "It's a tough draw. You've got the glamour tie against Brazil. Then Morocco, people will tip them to be a dark horse because they got to a semi-final last time.

"And you hate to say it, because it's international football, but it's a winnable game against Haiti.

"It makes it a little bit better. If you finish third, it gives you an opportunity. We should be going to try to upset people, particularly Brazil and Morocco."

Everything you need to know about the World Cup

Sources: BBC Sport

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